An enhancement of the ionospheric sporadic‐E layer in response to negative polarity cloud‐to‐ground lightning

Lightning data, collected using a Boltek Storm Tracker system installed at Chilton, UK, were used to investigate the mean response of the ionospheric sporadic-E layer to lightning strokes in a superposed epoch study. The lightning detector can discriminate between positive and negative lightning strokes and between cloud-to-ground ( CG) and inter-cloud ( IC) lightning. Superposed epoch studies carried out separately using these subsets of lightning strokes as trigger events have revealed that the dominant cause of the observed ionospheric enhancement in the Es layer is negative cloud-to-ground lightning.

The location of lightning affecting the ionospheric sporadic-E layer as evidence for multiple enhancement mechanisms

We present a study of the geographic location of lightning affecting the ionospheric sporadic-E (Es) layer over the ionospheric monitoring station at Chilton, UK. Data from the UK Met Office's Arrival Time Difference (ATD) lightning detection system were used to locate lightning strokes in the vicinity of the ionospheric monitoring station. A superposed epoch study of this data has previously revealed an enhancement in the Es layer caused by lightning within 200km of Chilton. In the current paper, we use the same data to investigate the location of the lightning strokes which have the largest effect on the Es layer above Chilton. We find that there are several locations where the effect of lightning on the ionosphere is most significant statistically, each producing different ionospheric responses. We interpret this as evidence that there is more than one mechanism combining to produce the previously observed enhancement in the ionosphere.

Lightning-induced intensification of the ionospheric sporadic E layer

A connection between thunderstorms and the ionosphere has been hypothesized since the mid-1920s(1). Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this connection(2-7), and evidence from modelling(8) as well as various types of measurements(9-14) demonstrate that lightning can interact with the lower ionosphere. It has been proposed, on the basis of a few observed events(15), that the ionospheric 'sporadic E' layer - transient, localized patches of relatively high electron density in the mid-ionosphere E layer, which significantly affect radio-wave propagation - can be modulated by thunderstorms, but a more formal statistical analysis is still needed. Here we identify a statistically significant intensification and descent in altitude of the mid-latitude sporadic E layer directly above thunderstorms. Because no ionospheric response to low-pressure systems without lightning is detected, we conclude that this localized intensification of the sporadic E layer can be attributed to lightning. We suggest that the co-location of lightning and ionospheric enhancement can be explained by either vertically propagating gravity waves that transfer energy from the site of lightning into the ionosphere, or vertical electrical discharge, or by a combination of these two mechanisms.

Prebiotic effects: metabolic and health benefits

The different compartments of the gastrointestinal tract are inhabited by populations of micro-organisms. By far the most important predominant populations are in the colon where a true symbiosis with the host exists that is a key for well-being and health. For such a microbiota, 'normobiosis' characterises a composition of the gut 'ecosystem' in which micro-organisms with potential health benefits predominate in number over potentially harmful ones, in contrast to 'dysbiosis', in which one or a few potentially harmful micro-organisms are dominant, thus creating a disease-prone situation. The present document has been written by a group of both academic and industry experts (in the ILSI Europe Prebiotic Expert Group and Prebiotic Task Force, respectively). It does not aim to propose a new definition of a prebiotic nor to identify which food products are classified as prebiotic but rather to validate and expand the original idea of the prebiotic concept (that can be translated in 'prebiotic effects'), defined as: 'The selective stimulation of growth and/or activity(ies) of one or a limited number of microbial genus(era)/species in the gut microbiota that confer(s) health benefits to the host.' Thanks to the methodological and fundamental research of microbiologists, immense progress has very recently been made in our understanding of the gut microbiota. A large number of human intervention studies have been performed that have demonstrated that dietary consumption of certain food products can result in statistically significant changes in the composition of the gut microbiota in line with the prebiotic concept. Thus the prebiotic effect is now a well-established scientific fact. The more data are accumulating, the more it will be recognised that such changes in the microbiota's composition, especially increase in bifidobacteria, can be regarded as a marker of intestinal health. The review is divided in chapters that cover the major areas of nutrition research where a prebiotic effect has tentatively been investigated for potential health benefits. The prebiotic effect has been shown to associate with modulation of biomarkers and activity(ies) of the immune system. Confirming the studies in adults, it has been demonstrated that, in infant nutrition, the prebiotic effect includes a significant change of gut microbiota composition, especially an increase of faecal concentrations of bifidobacteria. This concomitantly improves stool quality (pH, SCFA, frequency and consistency), reduces the risk of gastroenteritis and infections, improves general well-being and reduces the incidence of allergic symptoms such as atopic eczema. Changes in the gut microbiota composition are classically considered as one of the many factors involved in the pathogenesis of either inflammatory bowel disease or irritable bowel syndrome. The use of particular food products with a prebiotic effect has thus been tested in clinical trials with the objective to improve the clinical activity and well-being of patients with such disorders. Promising beneficial effects have been demonstrated in some preliminary studies, including changes in gut microbiota composition (especially increase in bifidobacteria concentration). Often associated with toxic load and/or miscellaneous risk factors, colon cancer is another pathology for which a possible role of gut microbiota composition has been hypothesised. Numerous experimental studies have reported reduction in incidence of tumours and cancers after feeding specific food products with a prebiotic effect. Some of these studies (including one human trial) have also reported that, in such conditions, gut microbiota composition was modified (especially due to increased concentration of bifidobacteria). Dietary intake of particular food products with a prebiotic effect has been shown, especially in adolescents, but also tentatively in postmenopausal women, to increase Ca absorption as well as bone Ca accretion and bone mineral density. Recent data, both from experimental models and from human studies, support the beneficial effects of particular food products with prebiotic properties on energy homaeostasis, satiety regulation and body weight gain. Together, with data in obese animals and patients, these studies support the hypothesis that gut microbiota composition (especially the number of bifidobacteria) may contribute to modulate metabolic processes associated with syndrome X, especially obesity and diabetes type 2. It is plausible, even though not exclusive, that these effects are linked to the microbiota-induced changes and it is feasible to conclude that their mechanisms fit into the prebiotic effect. However, the role of such changes in these health benefits remains to be definitively proven. As a result of the research activity that followed the publication of the prebiotic concept 15 years ago, it has become clear that products that cause a selective modification in the gut microbiota's composition and/or activity(ies) and thus strengthens normobiosis could either induce beneficial physiological effects in the colon and also in extra-intestinal compartments or contribute towards reducing the risk of dysbiosis and associated intestinal and systemic pathologies.

Immunogenetics of drug-induced skin blistering disorders. Part II: Synthesis

The overall immunopathogenesis relevant to a large series of disorders caused by a drug or its associated hyperimmune condition is discussed based upon examining the genetics of severe drug-induced bullous skin problems (sporadic idiosyncratic adverse events including Stevens-Johnson syndrome and Toxic epidermal necrolysis). New results from an exemplar study on shared precipitating and perpetuating inner causes with other related disease phenotypes including aphtous stomatitis, Behcets, erythema multiforme, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, pemphigus, periodic fevers, Sweet's syndrome and drug-induced multisystem hypersensitivity are presented. A call for a collaborative, wider demographic profiling and deeper immunotyping in suggested future work is made.

Immunogenetics of drug-induced skin blistering disorders. Part I: Perspective

The overall immunopathogenesis relevant to a large series of disorders caused by a drug or its associated hyperimmune condition is discussed based upon the examination of the genetics of severe drug-induced bullous skin problems (sporadic idiosyncratic adverse events, including Stevens-Johnson syndrome and toxic epidermal necrolysis). An overarching pharmacogenetic schema is proposed. Immune cognition and early-effector processes are focused upon and a challenging synthesis around systems evolution is explained by a variety of projective analogies. Etiology, human leukocyte antigen-B, immune stability, clysiregulation, pharmacomimicry, viruses and an aggressive ethnically differentiated 'karmic' response are discussed.

Analysis of protein-protein interactions in the feline calicivirus replication complex

Caliciviruses are a major cause of gastroenteritis in humans and cause a wide variety of other diseases in animals. Here, the characterization of protein-protein interactions between the individual proteins of Feline calicivirus (FCV), a model system for other members of the family Caliciviridae, is reported. Using the yeast two-hybrid system combined with a number of other approaches, it is demonstrated that the p32 protein (the picornavirus 2B analogue) of FCV interacts with p39 (2C), p30 (3A) and p76 (3CD). The FCV protease/RNA polymerase (ProPol) p76 was found to form homo-oligomers, as well as to interact with VPg and ORF2, the region encoding the major capsid protein VP1. A weak interaction was also observed between p76 and the minor capsid protein encoded by ORF3 (VP2). ORF2 protein was found to interact with VPg, p76 and VP2. The potential roles of the interactions in calicivirus replication are discussed.

The genome of Rhizobium leguminosarum has recognizable core and accessory components

Background: Rhizobium leguminosarum is an alpha-proteobacterial N-2-fixing symbiont of legumes that has been the subject of more than a thousand publications. Genes for the symbiotic interaction with plants are well studied, but the adaptations that allow survival and growth in the soil environment are poorly understood. We have sequenced the genome of R. leguminosarum biovar viciae strain 3841. Results: The 7.75 Mb genome comprises a circular chromosome and six circular plasmids, with 61% G+C overall. All three rRNA operons and 52 tRNA genes are on the chromosome; essential protein-encoding genes are largely chromosomal, but most functional classes occur on plasmids as well. Of the 7,263 protein-encoding genes, 2,056 had orthologs in each of three related genomes ( Agrobacterium tumefaciens, Sinorhizobium meliloti, and Mesorhizobium loti), and these genes were overrepresented in the chromosome and had above average G+C. Most supported the rRNA-based phylogeny, confirming A. tumefaciens to be the closest among these relatives, but 347 genes were incompatible with this phylogeny; these were scattered throughout the genome but were over-represented on the plasmids. An unexpectedly large number of genes were shared by all three rhizobia but were missing from A. tumefaciens. Conclusion: Overall, the genome can be considered to have two main components: a 'core', which is higher in G+C, is mostly chromosomal, is shared with related organisms, and has a consistent phylogeny; and an 'accessory' component, which is sporadic in distribution, lower in G+C, and located on the plasmids and chromosomal islands. The accessory genome has a different nucleotide composition from the core despite a long history of coexistence.

Probiotics for the developing world

Every minute of every day more and more children die of diarrheal diseases and women, and girls become infected by HIV An estimated 7,000 women become infected each day. While many valiant efforts are being made to address these issues, until now they have proved to be markedly ineffective. The notion that lactic acid bacteria, formulated into food or dietary supplements, could have a role to play in slowing the morbidity and mortality associated with HIV/AIDS and gastroenteritis, is built upon sound clinical findings and scientific investigations, yet no international efforts have been placed in this approach, to date. We hereby summarize the reasons why such efforts should be made, provide an example of one model being set up in sub-Saharan Africa, and challenge the international community to consider the potential benefits of probiotics, especially for communities not reached by governmental and nongovernmental agencies.

Prebiotics and resistance to gastrointestinal infections

Acute gut disorder is a cause for significant medicinal and economic concern. Certain individual pathogens of the gut, often transmitted in food or water, have the ability to cause severe discomfort. There is a need to manage such conditions more effectively. The route of reducing the risk of intestinal infections through diet remains largely unexplored. Antibiotics are effective at inhibiting pathogens; however, these should not be prescribed in the absence of disease and therefore cannot be used prophylactically. Moreover, their indiscriminate use has reduced effectiveness. Evidence has accumulated to suggest that some of the health-promoting bacteria in the gut (probiotics) can elicit a multiplicity of inhibitory effects against pathogens. Hence, an increase in their numbers should prove effective at repressing pathogen colonisation if/when infectious agents enter the gut. As such, fortification of indigenous bifidobacteria/lactobacilli by using prebiotics should improve protection. There are a number of potential mechanisms for lactic acid bacteria to reduce intestinal infections. Firstly, metabolic endproducts such as acids excreted by these micro-organisms may lower the gut pH to levels below those at which pathogens are able to effectively compete. Also, many lactobacilli and bifidobacteria species are able to excrete natural antibiotics, which can have a broad spectrum of activity. Other mechanisms include an improved immune stimulation, competition for nutrients and blocking of pathogen adhesion sites in the gut. Many intestinal pathogens like type 1 fimbriated Escherichia coli, salmonellae and campylobacters utilise oligosaccharide receptor sites in the gut. Once established, they can then cause gastroenteritis through invasive and/or toxin forming properties. One extrapolation of the prebiotic concept is to simulate such receptor sites in the gut lumen. Hence, the pathogen is 'decoyed' into not binding at the host mucosal interface. The combined effects of prebiotics upon the lactic acid flora and anti-adhesive strategies may lead towards new dietary interventions against food safety agents.

Prebiotics as gut microflora management tools

Functional foods is an often-used term applied to dietary ingredients that serve to improve consumer health. Over the last few decades, these foods have gained in popularity with sales continuing to increase rapidly. Recent scientific, and some lay, reports have shown the popularity of both probiotics and prebiotics. These serve to elicit changes in the gut microbiota composition that increase populations of purported beneficial gut bacterial genera, for example, lactobacilli or bifidobacteria. Probiotics use live microbial feed additions, whereas prebiotics target indigenous flora components. As gastrointestinal disorders are prevalent in terms of human health, both probiotics and prebiotics serve an important role in the prophylactic management of various acute and chronic gut derived conditions. Examples include protection from gastroenteritis and some inflammatory conditions.

Fibre and effects on probiotics (the prebiotic concept)

The burden (economic and medicinal) of acute and chronic gut disorders continues to increase. As efficient therapies are few, attention has turned towards the use of so-called functional foods to mediate against gut disorder. These target particular genera of gut bacteria seen as beneficial, e.g. bifidobacteria, lactobacilli. The use of products containing live microbial species (probiotics) has a long history of use in humans and many trials have been reported as 'positive'. Taking the view that positive components of the gut flora already exist in the intestinal tract, the prebiotic concept has been developed. Here, dietary carbohydrates have a selective metabolism within the gut flora thereby shifting the community towards a more advantageous structure. Conventional fibres like pectins, cellulose, etc. are not selectively metabolised by gut bacteria. However, certain oligosaccharides do have this capability. Most research has been conducted with fructooligosaccharides, like inulin, which have a powerful bifidogenic effect. Trials are ongoing to determine the clinical benefits of prebiotic use. Intestinal disorders like ulcerative colitis, gastroenteritis and irritable bowel syndrome are particular targets. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Localization to the nucleolus is a common feature of coronavirus nucleoproteins and the protein may disrupt host cell division

The subcellular localization of transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) (group I and group II coronaviruses, respectively) nucleoproteins (N proteins) were examined by confocal microscopy. The proteins were shown to localize either to the cytoplasm alone or to the cytoplasm and a structure in the nucleus. This feature was confirmed to be the nucleolus by using specific antibodies to nucleolin, a major component of the nucleolus, and by confocal microscopy to image sections through a cell expressing N protein. These findings are consistent with our previous report for infectious bronchitis virus (group III coronavirus) (J. A. Hiscox et al., J. Virol. 75:506-512, 2001), indicating that nucleolar localization of the N protein is a common feature of the coronavirus family and is possibly of functional significance. Nucleolar localization signals were identified in the domain III region of the N protein from all three coronavirus groups, and this suggested that transport of N protein to the nucleus might be an active process. In addition, our results suggest that the N protein might function to disrupt cell division. Thus, we observed that approximately 30% of cells transfected with the N protein appeared to be undergoing cell division. The most likely explanation for this is that the N protein induced a cell cycle delay or arrest, most likely in the G2/M phase. In a fraction of transfected cells expressing coronavirus N proteins, we observed multinucleate cells and dividing cells with nucleoli (which are only present during interphase). These findings are consistent with the possible inhibition of cytokinesis in these cells.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

The British Lower Palaeolithic of the early Middle Pleistocene

The archaeology of Britain during the early Middle Pleistocene (MIS 19–12) is represented by a number of key sites across eastern and southern England. These sites include Pakefield, Happisburgh 1, High Lodge, Warren Hill, Waverley Wood, Boxgrove, Kent's Cavern, and Westbury-sub-Mendip, alongside a ‘background scatter’ lithic record associated with the principal river systems (Bytham, pre-diversion Thames, and Solent) and raised beaches (Westbourne–Arundel). Hominin behaviour can be characterised in terms of: preferences for temperate or cool temperate climates and open/woodland mosaic habitats (indicated by mammalian fauna, mollusca, insects, and sediments); a biface-dominated material culture characterised by technological diversity, although with accompanying evidence for distinctive core and flake (Pakefield) and flake tool (High Lodge) assemblages; probable direct hunting-based subsistence strategies (with a focus upon large mammal fauna); and generally locally-focused spatial and landscape behaviours (principally indicated by raw material sources data), although with some evidence of dynamic, mobile and structured technological systems. The British data continues to support a ‘modified short chronology’ to the north of the Alps and the Pyrenees, with highly sporadic evidence for a hominin presence prior to 500–600 ka, although the ages of key assemblages are subject to ongoing debates regarding the chronology of the Bytham river terraces and the early Middle Pleistocene glaciations of East Anglia.